News Analysis. Tonight, Microsoft put to use the silence before the great iPhone storm. Windows 7 came out to play.
There had been rumors, which proved right, that Microsoft would show off Windows Vista's successor at the D Conference in Carlsbad, Calif. I'm here at the opening night event, which is still underway as I post. This year's conference, the sixth, is simply called D6.
Julie Larson-Green, Microsoft's corporate veep for Windows Experience Program Management, briefly demoed Windows 7, which gave some sense of the revamped user interface. Microsoft is bringing to the masses the multitouch capabilities found in Surface Computing tabletops. Surface is based on Windows Vista.
Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer described the demo as the "smallest snippet of Windows 7." Small snippet maybe, but it's big capability.
Julie demonstrated the multitouch capabilities on a Dell Latitude XT, same model that is shipping today. Looking ahead to the evolution of operating system UI, "I think it's super important," she said about multitouch.
Julie is a rising Microsoft star; she oversaw development of the Office 2007 UI.
"You will be able to do these things in Windows 7," Julie said about the capabilities she showed off, starting with drawing with fingers in Windows Paint. Multitouch will be on "all sizes and shapes of computers," she said. But, like the Latitude XT, they would need a digitizer supporting multitouch.
Multitouch is "not complete replacement of the mouse," Julie conceded. The capability will be pervasive in Windows 7. She said that people would be able to manipulate Windows with touch and gestures instead of the mouse.
Human beings are tool users. Fingers and touch is a more natural UI than the mouse and keyboard. But Microsoft isn't alone pushing multitouch. Apple is there, too, with iPhone.
Why Here?
The conference is a surprisingly appropriate venue for debuting Windows 7. D6 organizers Kara Swisher and Walt Mossberg are well-connected technology journalists. Their conference typically brings in the highest echelons and biggest influencers of the technology industry. Mergers and other deals are common D Conference occurrences. There is also big noise, whether from the All Things Digital Web site, bloggers or more traditional news coverage. It's a big venue, even for a little Windows 7 demo.
Timing is good, too. Apple CEO Steve Jobs isn't attending this year's D Conference, presumably in preparation for the company's developer conference starting on June 9. Meanwhile, the biggest technology event of the summer, iPhone 2.0, is at least two weeks away from debut. Microsoft is capitalizing on the Apple lull to make some Windows noise.
Microsoft really needs a cacophony. Vista is the much-maligned Windows black sheep. There's lots of noise against Windows and not much for it. The Windows 7 debut allows Microsoft to take some control over the messaging, by disclosing just a little bit about Seven. Bit-by-bit could work for Microsoft, as long as there is an ongoing trickle of information—and leaks—to wet the Windows community's lips without satisfying the thirst.
Apple's D6 absence took on sudden presence during Julie's presentation. Multitouch already is available on iPhone. Microsoft would have had a more difficult time making this presentation with Apple at D6. There's Mac likeness elsewhere, with a Mac OS X-like Dock replacing the traditional Windows tool bar.
User interface is usually the last element that Microsoft reveals about a new operating system. Microsoft did discuss some Longhorn (aka Vista) UI elements in October 2003. But major changes were kept secret until the late stages of operating system development. By revealing too much too soon, Microsoft creates opportunity for Apple or Linux developers to incorporate trend-setting UI into their operating systems. Apple already is pushing multitouch and could easily make multitouch a major feature of the next version of Mac OS X, which is likely to come before Windows 7 ships.
Clearly, Microsoft is trying to take control of the messaging. Earlier today, CNET News.com posted a Q&A with Steven Sinofsky, senior veep over the Windows and Windows Live Engineering group. Nine minutes after the Q&A went up, supporting "Communicating Windows 7" posted on Microsoft's Windows Vista blog. Steven's interview, the blog post and tonight's Seven demonstration were clearly coordinated.
Why Now?
The question to ask: Why now? Microsoft's developer conference is still about six months away. Windows Vista has only been in the mainstream marketplace for about 18 months. So, Microsoft is coming out unusually early talking about Vista's successor this publicly. Conclusions I draw:
- Windows 7 will ship in 2009, almost certainly in time for holiday PCs. Microsoft disclosed today that there would be no major architectural changes from Vista, which would greatly reduce development complications.
- Microsoft isn't worried about Windows 7 disclosure hurting Vista sales. That's a sobering consideration. Either Microsoft has finally disowned Vista or executives recognize that market reception is so bad nothing could make sales worse. Or, executives are living in 150-million-licenses-shipped glow, believing that Vista is doing well despite the large number of licenses downgraded to Windows XP.
- Steven and Julie are part of the new Windows management team that needs to demonstrate how much it's in control of Seven development. Pretty much every executive associated with Vista has left Microsoft or been sidelined. Past Windows launches were meal tickets to big promotions. Vista association is a Microsoft career buster. New management must create confidence that Microsoft has learned lessons and Seven development won't track like Vista.
- Whatever value Seven gives will come outside the core architecture—from the new UI and services that Microsoft will either closely align with or integrate into the operating system.
Based on tonight's demonstration, I'm convinced that Microsoft plans on releasing beta code during its October developer conference. The timing is consistent with planned timing for Internet Explorer 8 public beta. Windows 7 beta would be for developers, however, and not for widespread testing.
Video: Multi-Touch in Windows 7
I don't believe that Vista is the best foundation for Seven. That said, multitouch is a natural evolution of the operating system UI. It's good to see Microsoft going in that direction. But will Apple get there first? Maybe.
The important question: Will Vista's successor be Lucky Seven? It's too early to say. But multitouch UI is really encouraging.
